Trump said there were only three to four candidates left for the Fed Chairman position, and SHFE tin prices dropped back slightly [SMM Morning Tin News]

SMM Tin Morning News on August 14, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) fluctuated rangebound during the night session, closing at 268,800 yuan/mt, down 0.5% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to CNBC, the US White House confirmed on the 12th that two US chipmakers, Nvidia and AMD, have agreed to a special arrangement to hand over 15% of their chip sales revenue in China to the US government in exchange for export licenses for related products. The White House indicated that the agreement might be expanded to more companies in the future. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said at a press conference that currently, such agreements only involve these two companies, "but it may be expanded to other companies in the future." She also mentioned that the US Department of Commerce is still studying the relevant legal basis and specific operational methods, and details will be further clarified by the Department of Commerce. (2) Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said at a regular press conference that when TSMC was forced to announce an additional investment of $100 billion in the US, it had already caused panic and widespread discontent among the industry in Taiwan. If the $300 billion investment is implemented, it will undoubtedly have a huge impact on Taiwan's economy, further weakening the momentum and autonomy of Taiwan's economic development. If the US is the instigator of hollowing out Taiwan's industries, then the authorities are the biggest accomplices. They "kneel before negotiations" and "offer the left cheek after being slapped on the right" in tariff negotiations, keeping the negotiation process secretive and even deceiving the public repeatedly. (3) US Fed: ① Trump said there are only three to four candidates left for the Fed Chairman position. Officials revealed that the government is considering 11 candidates for the Chairman role. ② Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in September. ③ Fed Governor Goolsbee: We need to see more evidence of inflation improvement, and there is a possibility of action at every meeting. ④ Fed Governor nominee Milan: There is no evidence that tariffs have triggered inflation.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: The overall tin ore supply in major production areas such as Yunnan is tightening, and some smelters may maintain production shutdowns for maintenance or slightly cut production in August (bullish ★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: After the installation rush, orders for PV tin strips in east China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have dropped; Electronics industry: The electronics terminal market in south China has entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, and orders are only maintained to meet immediate needs; Other sectors: Demand for tinplate, chemicals, etc. remains stable, with no unexpected growth observed.

Spot market: With the slight pullback in tin prices yesterday, the purchasing sentiment of downstream and end-user enterprises has increased, and they have begun to make small purchases for restocking. However, overall market transactions remain relatively poor.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not use it to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]